Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +25.9% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Buchnevich 36.3% (+25.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 81.1%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 54.0%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 70.6%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Sturm
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Sturm
Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Sturm
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Sturm
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
28.6% (192)
+27.5%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
55.6% (9)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
30.8% (13)
+20.3%
On even strength, Sturm has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Buchnevich is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Sturm
Buchnevich
Home
55.6% (412)
30.4% (112)
Away
56.0% (468)
29.4% (102)
By Period
Sturm
Buchnevich
P1
59.6%
27.7%
P2
52.0%
33.3%
P3
55.5%
27.7%
Final 5 min
56.8%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
29.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |