Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +22.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.2% vs Buchnevich 35.5% (+22.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 90.8%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 52.3%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 67.6%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Sturm
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Sturm
Buchnevich
Last 7: Sturm 2-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Sturm
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Buchnevich
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Sturm
Buchnevich
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,681)
33.7% (819)
+23.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
44.7% (47)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (482)
21.9% (32)
+29.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Sturm shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.7% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Sturm
Buchnevich
Home
57.3% (1,595)
34.9% (459)
Away
55.5% (1,630)
32.8% (439)
By Period
Sturm
Buchnevich
P1
56.4%
33.9%
P2
55.1%
33.9%
P3
57.6%
33.6%
OT
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
33.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |