Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 70.1%
Defensive zone
Norris 69.8%
Neutral zone
Norris 70.9%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Norris
O'Reilly
Last 7: Norris 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Norris
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Norris
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
55.7% (856)
-5.2%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
57.5% (233)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
50.0% (144)
-7.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
48.1% (233)
55.5% (616)
Away
51.6% (246)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
58.1%
P2
49.2%
54.9%
P3
48.4%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Josh Norris |